Israel Election: Voters Decide Netanyahu's Fate

Israeli citizens cast ballots on Tuesday in the first general election since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023. The vote determines whether Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving prime minister, secures a fourth term or yields to a rival right-wing bloc.

The campaign centered on accountability for security failures preceding the 2023 attack and disputes over ultra-Orthodox military service. While the governing coalition is led by far-right ultranationalists and ultra-Orthodox parties, the opposition has adopted a similarly right-leaning stance on Israel's core challenges.

Netanyahu faces two major legal hurdles. He is wanted by the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges related to Gaza and stands trial for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, charges he denies. His opponents frame the race as a test of his competence and timing rather than a rejection of his governing philosophy.

Analysts note that the shift to the right accelerated under Netanyahu's latest government. The administration pursued a judicial overhaul to strip the Supreme Court of its power to review government actions. It also flouted rulings on the conscription of the ultra-Orthodox minority, whose political support sustains the coalition.

Key cabinet members, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, supported the judicial changes and the surge in West Bank violence. In exchange for their seats, they provided cover for the government's controversial legislative agenda.

The election results will determine the future of the occupation. Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, described the choice as deciding whether Israel remains a functioning democracy or a democracy in name only. He noted the stakes include maintaining the occupation of the West Bank or annexing it entirely, with the population experiencing voluntary migration.

Ahron Bregman, an Israeli analyst at King's College London, suggested that a change in leadership would alter the political atmosphere. He stated that while Netanyahu is a deeply divisive figure revered or hated by large segments of the population, a new prime minister is likely to calm domestic tensions.

Despite the high stakes, no mainstream candidate has proposed including Arab-led parties in a potential coalition. Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani, an Israeli sociologist, argued that the political system operates within a framework of Jewish supremacy. He stated that the distinction is not between democratic and anti-democratic forces, but between Jews and Palestinians.

The ballot does not include a direct referendum on the war in Gaza, where more than 74,000 people have been killed. Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser, noted that none of the candidates argue the treatment of Palestinians was a good thing, nor do they acknowledge it was a genocide. The differences among Zionist parties rest on whether the state or settler militias should play the primary role in oppression.