Inflation at 3.7% as Midterm Voters Weigh Costs

Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the month before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, up from the 3.0% rate recorded when President Donald Trump took office. Filling a basic Ford F-150 pickup now runs about $100, or $30 more than a year ago, and mortgage rates have climbed to levels that have depressed home sales. Over the past year, consumer prices have risen faster than wages, lowering the purchasing power of the average household.

Trump has promised to end inflation since his 2024 campaign, when inflation reached 9.1% in June 2022 under President Joe Biden. Since taking office, he has imposed double-digit tariffs on trade partners including the European Union, India, Japan, Canada and Mexico, launched trade conflicts with allies, taken federal stakes in dozens of private companies and signed broad income tax cuts. Inflation has persisted through those changes. Trump has said the rate is below 2% and "under control." He also called affordability "a scam by the Democrats" that "means nothing to anyone."

A week before the vote, Trump has said the nation is in a "golden age" and that interest rates and oil prices will fall once the war with Iran he started ends. He has told campaign rallies, "Our nation is better now than ever." Voters surveyed for this report described higher costs for fuel, food and rent. Liz Shuler, president of the AFL-CIO, said wages have not kept pace with costs, calling it "a double blow." Stephen Moore, a former White House adviser, said the Iran conflict has weighed on the economy and that Republicans could pay a price for it.

Democrats have used the same cost concerns that hurt them before the 2024 election to challenge Republican-held seats, including districts Trump won by double digits. Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Georgia Democrat running for reelection, said at an Atlanta rally that under Trump it costs more than ever to fill a truck, stock a refrigerator, see a doctor or power a home. Cait Conley, running in New York against Rep. Mike Lawler, cut an ad using Lawler's own advice to voters before the last midterms to fill up at the pump and shop for groceries: "and then tell me if the system is working for you."

Some voters said prices have shaped their plans. Misty Reeder, 48, of Easley, South Carolina, who receives disability payments, marked every Democrat on her ballot and said rent on her home has risen by hundreds of dollars over six years. Sandra Capell, 69, of Easley, said she wants "to see some change" in the economy. Beti Rosales, 47, said higher prices for limes, avocados and plumbers have hurt her family's Mexican restaurant in Allentown, Pennsylvania, and that she is considering voting Democratic in the midterms. Renee Blood, 57, of Round Rock, Texas, said she plans to vote Republican because she worries costs could worsen under Democrats.

Moore said he would rather Republicans talk about median income gains and record stock prices, though he acknowledged those figures may not reach voters. "What matters is how people feel, and people clearly feel financially stressed," he said. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for reelection, and in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed said in an ad that Trump's war costs taxpayers $1 billion a day. Roy Cooper, a Democratic Senate candidate in North Carolina, said in a North Carolina ad that Washington politicians grow rich while costs rise. The midterm elections are Nov. 3.