Lula Claims Fourth Presidency After Reversing First-Round Deficit

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil, defeating far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff that remained competitive until the final count. Results were declared shortly after midnight UK time on 2026-10-26. The victory marks a reversal of the first-round results from earlier this month, where Bolsonaro held a lead.

Lula, the incumbent from the Workers' Party, captured 51.79% of the vote compared to Bolsonaro's 48.21%. The margin amounted to approximately 4.3 million votes among the country's 159 million voters. In the first round, Bolsonaro had received 56.1 million votes to Lula's 53.8 million. No first-round runner-up had won the second ballot since democracy returned to Brazil in 1985.

The shift in momentum was driven by changes in voter engagement and campaign strategy. The first round saw a record abstention rate of 21%, a trend more common among lower-income voters and progressives. In the weeks following that vote, Lula’s campaign focused on mobilization. Millions of supporters joined a WhatsApp channel named "Lula's army," which provided daily instructions for creating viral content.

Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. This digital push allowed his online reach to surpass Bolsonaro's for the first time. Bolsonaro’s campaign faced challenges, including scandals reported by the magazine Piauí. The publication alleged that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists.

External factors also influenced the race. President Donald Trump did not formally endorse Bolsonaro but criticized the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, Lula's predecessor, as a "witch-hunt." Trump also imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a counterweight to what he called Trump's "colonial" designs. He pursued a multilateral foreign policy that balances relations with the United States, China, and Russia.

Lula declined invitations to join a Latin American coalition conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon. His administration has focused on environmental protection, with Amazon deforestation falling by more than 70% under his leadership. His government also cracked down on illegal mining and supported Indigenous communities. However, the environment was a secondary issue in the final debate, where voters prioritized the economy, public security, and cultural conflicts.

The new government will operate with a congress that includes a record number of right-wing politicians. Many of these lawmakers are hostile to Indigenous rights and environmental causes. Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the election, citing the decision to extend voting hours by two hours. Both campaigns had requested the extension for different reasons. Bolsonaro stated it was "impossible to concede the election result."

Guardian Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips noted that world leaders are already recognizing Lula's victory. Phillips said he does not expect Bolsonaro’s challenge to succeed. He suggested Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. Phillips believes Bolsonaro's political career is likely over, though he noted that violence from supporters remains a possibility. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.