Mail Ballot Returns Show Democrats Outpacing Republicans in Arizona

Early mail ballot returns in Arizona show Democrats voting at a faster clip than Republicans, with nearly 28% of registered Democrats having returned ballots compared with just over 23% of Republicans as of Oct. 24, according to Stealth Analytics. Independents, who make up more than a third of all registered voters, have returned fewer than 13% of their ballots. More than 884,000 ballots had been returned statewide by the end of last week, and each party held a nearly equal share of that total, the firm said.

Nearly 90% of Arizona's 4.37 million voters use mail ballots rather than appearing at a polling place. Republicans hold a registration advantage of 34.8% to 28.3%, a 6.5 percentage point gap. Democrats have added close to 30,000 registered voters since the August primary while Republican registration has remained flat, and independents have added more than 37,000.

Democrats swept the governor, secretary of state and attorney general races in 2022, preventing GOP control of all branches of state government for the first time since Janet Napolitano left the governor's office in 2009. Katie Hobbs won her race by 17,000 votes. Kris Mayes prevailed by 280 votes. Adrian Fontes finished more than 120,000 votes ahead of Mark Finchem. All three are on the Nov. 3 ballot and face Republican challengers Andy Biggs, Warren Petersen and Alexander Kolodin.

HighGround, a public affairs and campaign firm, surveyed Arizona voters earlier this month and found Democrats leading in all five top statewide offices, with as many as 20% of Republicans backing the other party's candidates. HighGround President and CEO Chuck Coughlin, who left the GOP in 2018 and now registers as an independent, said the results surprised him. "We were all caught a little unaware of how difficult this cycle had become" for Republicans, Coughlin said. "They have a full-on house fire going on, and they see it as well."

Samara Klar, a political science professor at the University of Arizona in Tucson, said independent voters are breaking toward Democrats. "Democratic campaigns in Arizona have been very disciplined about portraying a centrist moderate ideology, whereas the Republican campaigns in Arizona have not done that," Klar said. She said rising gas prices, food costs and the cost of living are making it hard for Republicans to offer a winning message. She also pointed to what many see as excessive force by ICE, saying immigration could have been a strong issue for the GOP in 2026 but has been overshadowed by the economy.

Two congressional races remain closely contested. In Congressional District 1, which covers the northeast Phoenix suburbs, former professional football kicker Jay Feely is running for the seat vacated by David Schweikert, who lost the August GOP primary for governor. He faces Democrat Amish Shaw, an emergency room physician who served in the state House. In District 6, which covers parts of Tucson and southeastern Arizona, Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani faces former U.S. Marine drill instructor JoAnna Mendoza. Klar said those races are tight and difficult to predict.

Voters will decide control of all statewide offices and congressional seats on Nov. 3, the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency. Democrats have not held a majority in the state House since 1966 or in the state Senate since 1990.